The Bitcoin price USD has remained fairly level over the last week. With record inflows to Spot Bitcoin ETF products and changes in the dollar, why is the cryptocurrency experiencing such inertia?
June 2025 has marked a record month for Bitcoin ETFs. Around $3.5 billion has flowed into exchange-traded funds. Much of this has arrived through a 12-day inflow streak, which looks set to pass the $4 billion mark. Against a backdrop of a falling USD, Bitcoin has stood fairly still. But why is this happening?
ETF Inflows
BlackRock’s IBIT fund was the overall winner, with $340.3 million put into it during a single day. It has now reached $3.3 billion over the 12-day streak. This was followed by $115.2 million going into Fidelity’s FBTC. Several others brought in totals ranging from $70.2 million at the top end to $9.1 million.
It has even been a good time for Ethereum ETFs, which have typically struggled more than Bitcoin products since their launch. BlackRock led the way once again with their ETHA fund, which brought in $55.2 million, taking them to a three-day streak in which $232.4 million was accumulated. In total, Wednesday saw $60.4 million brought into Spot Ethereum ETF funds.
Unfortunately, this has not been reflected in the price of Bitcoin itself. A rise of 2% over the month is little compared to the gains it has made in the past, and even its notorious volatility has slowed. It did have a quick peak to $108K on Thursday, 26th, but then the Bitcoin price settled back down at $106,869.
Many believe that much of this inertia is coming from large sales that are stalling any momentum Bitcoin may have. All of this suggests an imbalance between purchases and sales of the flagship cryptocurrency. For example, despite record inflows, Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust has done the opposite and experienced outflows. This fund was one of the first on the market in June 2024. Several others reported no inflows or outflows at all.
The supply of Bitcoin has also increased, as many countries have begun to sell off Bitcoin seized through criminal activities. Both Germany and the United States have done so. With more available on the market, demand is lower. An over-abundant supply is preventing any forward momentum.
How Is the Dollar Slump Impacting Bitcoin?
What is odd is that the price of Bitcoin remains static even as the USD declines to its lowest level since March 2022. The World Bank has also downgraded the country’s forecast for growth from 2.3% to 1.4%. Yet this is having no impact on the price, either positive or negative.
What it does show is that Bitcoin is increasingly an investment that is moving from a risky asset class to a safer one, and is less impacted by the movements of currencies or economic conditions. Previously, its price was often shaped by macroeconomic conditions, and while this is still true in some instances, it is becoming less so.
Bitcoin as Bonds
There has been much talk about Bitcoin replacing U.S. bonds as a safe haven asset. It is true that over the past year, its return has far outperformed many other major asset classes. This has inspired confidence that can be seen in the number of companies, states, and countries opening up Bitcoin treasuries.
However, investors must also realize that for Bitcoin to be a safe asset, it needs to have less volatility. So far, it does not. Its annualized volatility is around 50%, making it much higher than bonds and equities.
Compare this to the stable income that U.S. bonds bring. These are typically between 4.55% to 3.8% over a thirty-day period. This income will arrive regardless of rates or market volatility. The reason many people are turning to Bitcoin, attracted by its fast performance, is that there has been a sustained period of low yields for US bonds. In 2022 and 2023, rising interest rates also saw them dip into negative returns, shaking the faith in bonds just as it was bolstered for Bitcoin.
Any investor in Bitcoin must understand the challenges it faces. It is currently in a period of positive sentiment, but it may not always be that way. This also goes beyond just embracing its volatility. There is still an unfolding regulatory clarity that needs to be addressed when it comes to Bitcoin. While crypto regulation, such as the Genius Act, has been rolled out, it has concentrated on stablecoin use and not Bitcoin.
There are also operational risks that some companies may worry about. This can be from accounting and even environmental concerns due to Bitcoin’s energy consumption. By addressing these issues, people can make informed decisions about what is best for them: straight acquisition of cryptocurrencies, halfway houses like ETF products, or more traditional assets like bonds.