If you’ve been paying even the slightest attention to the 2025 NBA betting markets, you already know something’s different this year. The favorites aren’t running away with easy wins like they used to. The script has flipped, and underdogs are cashing tickets all season long.
We’re not talking about lucky covers here and there. We’re talking about outright wins, multi-unit returns, and playoff shocks that sportsbooks definitely didn’t have on their preseason models.
Let’s break down what’s really happening in the NBA this season, what the numbers say, and why smart bettors are all-in on the dogs.
Underdogs Playing Bigger
At first glance, it feels pretty balanced. Most seasons, the gap between favorites and underdogs against the spread isn’t as wide as people think. And this year has been no exception.
A few teams turned the underdog role into a profitable spot throughout the regular season. Toronto stood out early. They didn’t make it to the final rounds, but they delivered strong returns for bettors sharp enough to ride their ATS success while it lasted.
Indiana took it a step further. Not only did they deliver as regular-season underdogs, but they carried that momentum into the playoffs. They’ve been proving the market wrong in both spots, knocking off higher seeds and pushing deep into the postseason.
It’s proof that not all underdogs are created equal. Some make their money in the regular grind. Others show up when the lights are brightest. And if you’ve tracked these trends all season, you’ve probably felt that pull to place a bet with FanDuel at least once to test your read on the market.
When the Underdog Takes the Lead
Covering is one thing. Winning outright? That’s where bankrolls explode.
The Atlanta Hawks, for example, have gone 20-29 straight up as underdogs. Doesn’t sound glamorous until you realize that backing them on the moneyline has returned over $1,300 this season for $100 bettors. That’s a healthy profit margin, no matter how you slice it.
The Chicago Bulls have been even better. A team that shuffled its roster mid-season and still managed to deliver 24 outright wins in 33 underdog appearances. If you rode that train all year, you’d be up over $1,700.
And then there are the Indiana Pacers again. They entered the playoffs as double-digit underdogs to take out the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers. Five games later, Cleveland was on vacation, and Indiana had punched its ticket to the Eastern Conference Finals as a +125 dog.
These aren’t backdoor covers. These are teams wrecking moneylines, killing parlays, and making oddsmakers sweat in markets they once controlled.
Underdogs Shake Up the Playoff Race
We’re in unfamiliar territory when it comes to the NBA playoffs.
The Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, Indiana Pacers, and Oklahoma City Thunder are the final four teams standing. None of these squads were projected to make deep runs back in October. Yet here they are, one series away from the NBA Finals.
The Knicks have been the biggest surprise of them all. Long mocked as a franchise that couldn’t get out of its way, they’ve transformed into a disciplined, defensive juggernaut. Now, they’re favorites against Indiana to reach their first NBA Finals since 1999.
Minnesota? They just knocked out the defending champs. The Timberwolves are now slight favorites to come out of the West, but they entered the postseason as underdogs in nearly every futures market.
If you’ve been following the shifts in betting markets, you already know how quickly things have changed. Staying plugged in to FanDuel NBA Latest Updates has been one of the sharper moves this postseason, giving bettors reliable info on odds adjustments, injury reports, and market reactions as they happen.
Parity isn’t coming. It’s already here. And underdog bettors are feasting because of it.
How Bettors Are Beating the Market Right Now
If you’re looking to ride this wave, you can’t afford to bet emotionally. You need a system. Here’s what’s working for sharp bettors this season:
1. Watch for Sharp Line Movement. Pay close attention to how the lines move, especially early. If the number starts shifting toward the underdog, that’s often sharp money getting in before the public catches on. It’s a key signal that there’s value worth jumping on;
2. Take Calculated Shots on the Moneyline. Sure, betting underdogs to win outright carries more risk than just covering the spread. But the upside? It’s massive when you hit. That’s why experienced bettors mix in moneyline plays when the matchup looks right;
3. Stay Locked In on Roster and Team Dynamics. One injury. One rotation change. One player is getting hot. These small details can swing an underdog’s value in either direction. Staying updated on team news is what separates the casual bets from the profitable ones.
The Year of the Underdog Isn’t Over Yet
There’s no sugarcoating it. Favorites aren’t safe, power rankings mean nothing, and the books are catching up fast. If you’ve been riding the underdog wave, you already know how sweet those payouts can be. If you’ve hesitated, there’s still time to get in before the market fully corrects. One thing’s for sure: this season has proven that in the NBA, no lead, no seed, and no betting line is safe. The underdogs aren’t just covering anymore. They’re winning, and smart bettors are winning with them.